Expectations (Reverse-DCF)
What growth is baked into the price. For every name we solve the free-cash-flow growth rate the current price implies (a 2-stage reverse-DCF) and compare it to the growth the business has actually delivered. Priced for far LESS than it delivers = cheap expectations; far MORE = priced for perfection. Equity-basis, uniform 9% discount — decision-support, not advice.
150 of 383 · S&P 500
| # | Name | FCF yld | Implied gr. | Delivered | Gap | DCF upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NVDAInformation Technology | 2.1% | 30.8% | 100.0% | -69.2% | -19% |
| 2 | SMCIInformation Technology | 7.7% | -2.0% | 61.7% | -63.7% | +201% |
| 3 | LVSConsumer Discretionary | 5.7% | 5.0% | 46.9% | -41.9% | +122% |
| 4 | TKOCommunication Services | 2.8% | 22.6% | 60.7% | -38.1% | +9% |
| 5 | FConsumer Discretionary | 22.1% | -24.0% | 5.8% | -29.8% | +302% |
| 6 | TTDCommunication Services | 9.1% | -5.5% | 22.4% | -28.0% | +221% |
| 7 | CCLConsumer Discretionary | 5.9% | 4.1% | 29.8% | -25.7% | +130% |
| 8 | CMCSACommunication Services | 23.2% | -25.0% | 0.6% | -25.6% | +238% |
| 9 | CIHealth Care | 11.2% | -10.1% | 15.1% | -25.3% | +199% |
| 10 | CNCHealth Care | 13.3% | -13.7% | 10.5% | -24.2% | +194% |
| 11 | NEMMaterials | 7.1% | -0.1% | 23.9% | -24.0% | +166% |
| 12 | CHTRCommunication Services | 21.1% | -23.1% | 0.5% | -23.5% | +204% |
| 13 | SWMaterials | 4.9% | 8.7% | 32.2% | -23.4% | +90% |
| 14 | GENInformation Technology | 10.3% | -8.4% | 14.7% | -23.0% | +170% |
| 15 | ADBEInformation Technology | 12.2% | -12.0% | 10.5% | -22.5% | +170% |
| 16 | WYNNConsumer Discretionary | 6.6% | 1.5% | 23.9% | -22.4% | +148% |
| 17 | FOXCommunication Services | 15.5% | -16.9% | 5.3% | -22.2% | +176% |
| 18 | CAGConsumer Staples | 19.3% | -21.3% | 0.2% | -21.6% | +176% |
| 19 | GDDYInformation Technology | 14.1% | -14.9% | 6.6% | -21.5% | +164% |
| 20 | MGMConsumer Discretionary | 11.6% | -10.9% | 10.1% | -21.0% | +153% |
| 21 | WDAYInformation Technology | 9.1% | -5.5% | 15.4% | -20.9% | +144% |
| 22 | FOXACommunication Services | 14.2% | -15.1% | 5.3% | -20.4% | +153% |
| 23 | OMCCommunication Services | 13.4% | -13.9% | 6.5% | -20.4% | +151% |
| 24 | AREReal Estate | 14.7% | -15.8% | 4.6% | -20.3% | +153% |
| 25 | VICIReal Estate | 8.6% | -4.3% | 15.5% | -19.8% | +131% |
| 26 | CRMInformation Technology | 11.1% | -9.9% | 9.8% | -19.7% | +139% |
| 27 | ITInformation Technology | 13.0% | -13.3% | 5.9% | -19.1% | +137% |
| 28 | OReal Estate | 6.8% | 0.9% | 19.8% | -18.9% | +117% |
| 29 | LDOSIndustrials | 12.7% | -12.7% | 6.1% | -18.8% | +133% |
| 30 | ACNInformation Technology | 13.8% | -14.4% | 4.2% | -18.6% | +134% |
| 31 | INTUInformation Technology | 8.3% | -3.6% | 14.0% | -17.6% | +111% |
| 32 | CTSHInformation Technology | 13.7% | -14.3% | 2.8% | -17.1% | +119% |
| 33 | APTVConsumer Discretionary | 12.0% | -11.5% | 5.3% | -16.8% | +113% |
| 34 | DECKConsumer Discretionary | 7.6% | -1.5% | 14.7% | -16.2% | +98% |
| 35 | FSLRInformation Technology | 4.6% | 10.0% | 25.8% | -15.8% | +80% |
| 36 | TAPConsumer Staples | 13.7% | -14.4% | 1.4% | -15.7% | +106% |
| 37 | EXPEConsumer Discretionary | 9.9% | -7.4% | 8.1% | -15.5% | +97% |
| 38 | UHSHealth Care | 9.3% | -6.2% | 9.0% | -15.2% | +94% |
| 39 | UBERIndustrials | 6.3% | 2.7% | 17.7% | -15.1% | +86% |
| 40 | EXRReal Estate | 5.6% | 5.6% | 20.6% | -15.0% | +83% |
| 41 | DOCReal Estate | 8.4% | -3.9% | 11.0% | -15.0% | +90% |
| 42 | BKNGConsumer Discretionary | 6.5% | 2.1% | 16.3% | -14.3% | +81% |
| 43 | ROPInformation Technology | 7.1% | -0.2% | 13.7% | -13.9% | +80% |
| 44 | TCommunication Services | 12.3% | -12.1% | 1.3% | -13.4% | +85% |
| 45 | HCAHealth Care | 8.9% | -5.0% | 7.9% | -12.9% | +75% |
| 46 | GISConsumer Staples | 11.9% | -11.4% | 0.9% | -12.3% | +75% |
| 47 | BXPReal Estate | 10.4% | -8.4% | 3.9% | -12.3% | +73% |
| 48 | DVAHealth Care | 9.4% | -6.3% | 5.5% | -11.9% | +69% |
| 49 | NOWInformation Technology | 4.5% | 10.8% | 22.4% | -11.6% | +58% |
| 50 | KHCConsumer Staples | 13.0% | -13.3% | -2.0% | -11.3% | +69% |
| 51 | BMYHealth Care | 10.9% | -9.6% | 1.4% | -11.0% | +65% |
| 52 | LULUConsumer Discretionary | 6.9% | 0.6% | 11.0% | -10.5% | +56% |
| 53 | INCYHealth Care | 5.9% | 4.4% | 14.8% | -10.5% | +54% |
| 54 | PTCInformation Technology | 6.4% | 2.3% | 12.3% | -10.1% | +52% |
| 55 | MCKHealth Care | 6.1% | 3.6% | 13.4% | -9.8% | +50% |
| 56 | DGConsumer Staples | 9.1% | -5.6% | 4.1% | -9.7% | +54% |
| 57 | HPQInformation Technology | 13.4% | -13.8% | -4.2% | -9.6% | +57% |
| 58 | APAEnergy | 15.2% | -16.5% | -7.0% | -9.6% | +72% |
| 59 | BSXHealth Care | 5.2% | 7.3% | 16.5% | -9.3% | +46% |
| 60 | ZBHHealth Care | 7.9% | -2.4% | 5.9% | -8.3% | +44% |
| 61 | PODDHealth Care | 3.2% | 19.3% | 27.5% | -8.3% | +24% |
| 62 | VZCommunication Services | 10.1% | -7.9% | 0.3% | -8.3% | +45% |
| 63 | SJMConsumer Staples | 9.4% | -6.2% | 2.0% | -8.2% | +44% |
| 64 | ADSKInformation Technology | 5.7% | 4.8% | 12.9% | -8.1% | +40% |
| 65 | RMDHealth Care | 5.7% | 5.1% | 12.9% | -7.8% | +38% |
| 66 | ABNBConsumer Discretionary | 5.4% | 6.4% | 13.4% | -7.0% | +34% |
| 67 | KRConsumer Staples | 9.8% | -7.2% | -0.1% | -7.0% | +37% |
| 68 | VEEVHealth Care | 5.1% | 7.7% | 14.0% | -6.3% | +30% |
| 69 | SLBEnergy | 6.5% | 2.1% | 8.3% | -6.3% | +31% |
| 70 | TMUSCommunication Services | 7.8% | -2.2% | 3.5% | -5.8% | +29% |
| 71 | CORHealth Care | 5.8% | 4.7% | 10.4% | -5.7% | +27% |
| 72 | ZTSHealth Care | 7.2% | -0.3% | 5.4% | -5.7% | +28% |
| 73 | HIIIndustrials | 7.1% | -0.2% | 5.4% | -5.6% | +27% |
| 74 | DALIndustrials | 6.3% | 2.6% | 7.8% | -5.2% | +25% |
| 75 | KIMReal Estate | 6.4% | 2.2% | 7.4% | -5.2% | +25% |
| 76 | BRIndustrials | 6.6% | 1.5% | 6.5% | -5.0% | +24% |
| 77 | UALIndustrials | 5.8% | 4.6% | 9.5% | -4.9% | +23% |
| 78 | EXEEnergy | 7.8% | -2.1% | 2.1% | -4.2% | +21% |
| 79 | DLTRConsumer Staples | 5.9% | 4.3% | 8.0% | -3.7% | +17% |
| 80 | DXCMHealth Care | 4.0% | 13.7% | 17.0% | -3.3% | +14% |
| 81 | CVSHealth Care | 5.9% | 4.3% | 7.6% | -3.3% | +15% |
| 82 | OKEEnergy | 4.4% | 11.5% | 14.5% | -3.1% | +13% |
| 83 | VTRSHealth Care | 9.7% | -7.1% | -4.2% | -2.9% | +14% |
| 84 | ADMConsumer Staples | 11.4% | -10.4% | -7.5% | -2.9% | +28% |
| 85 | HONIndustrials | 7.4% | -0.9% | 1.8% | -2.8% | +13% |
| 86 | ALLEIndustrials | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.5% | -2.6% | +12% |
| 87 | REGReal Estate | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | -2.1% | +9% |
| 88 | BDXHealth Care | 6.2% | 3.0% | 5.0% | -2.0% | +9% |
| 89 | IQVHealth Care | 6.4% | 2.2% | 4.2% | -2.0% | +9% |
| 90 | DPZConsumer Discretionary | 6.8% | 1.0% | 2.9% | -1.9% | +9% |
| 91 | EFXIndustrials | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.8% | -1.8% | +8% |
| 92 | METACommunication Services | 3.3% | 18.4% | 19.9% | -1.5% | +6% |
| 93 | PHMConsumer Discretionary | 6.7% | 1.3% | 2.7% | -1.3% | +6% |
| 94 | REGNHealth Care | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.6% | -0.5% | +2% |
| 95 | TYLInformation Technology | 5.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | -0.5% | +2% |
| 96 | TXTIndustrials | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | -0.4% | +2% |
| 97 | DHIConsumer Discretionary | 7.0% | 0.4% | 0.8% | -0.4% | +2% |
| 98 | LHXIndustrials | 4.9% | 8.4% | 8.6% | -0.3% | +1% |
| 99 | INVHReal Estate | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | -0.2% | +1% |
| 100 | DISCommunication Services | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | -0.2% | +1% |
| 101 | LMTIndustrials | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | -0.2% | +1% |
| 102 | NTAPInformation Technology | 6.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | -0.1% | +0% |
| 103 | MOConsumer Staples | 7.4% | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.0% | +0% |
| 104 | DASHConsumer Discretionary | 2.3% | 28.1% | 27.7% | +0.4% | -11% |
| 105 | HSTReal Estate | 5.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | +0.6% | -2% |
| 106 | SWKSInformation Technology | 10.5% | -8.8% | -9.3% | +0.6% | +19% |
| 107 | STEHealth Care | 4.6% | 10.0% | 9.4% | +0.6% | -2% |
| 108 | LHHealth Care | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | +0.6% | -3% |
| 109 | DGXHealth Care | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | +0.6% | -3% |
| 110 | AMGNHealth Care | 4.2% | 12.4% | 11.8% | +0.6% | -3% |
| 111 | XYLIndustrials | 3.3% | 18.5% | 17.8% | +0.7% | -3% |
| 112 | ADPIndustrials | 4.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | +0.9% | -4% |
| 113 | PLDReal Estate | 3.8% | 14.7% | 13.7% | +1.0% | -4% |
| 114 | VRSKIndustrials | 5.0% | 8.1% | 7.2% | +1.0% | -4% |
| 115 | STZConsumer Staples | 7.1% | -0.2% | -1.1% | +1.0% | -4% |
| 116 | ULTAConsumer Discretionary | 5.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | +1.0% | -4% |
| 117 | BKREnergy | 4.5% | 10.5% | 9.4% | +1.1% | -4% |
| 118 | APPInformation Technology | 2.5% | 26.1% | 24.8% | +1.3% | -5% |
| 119 | UNHHealth Care | 4.1% | 12.7% | 11.4% | +1.4% | -5% |
| 120 | HALEnergy | 5.9% | 4.4% | 3.0% | +1.4% | -6% |
| 121 | GILDHealth Care | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.6% | +1.4% | -6% |
| 122 | AOSIndustrials | 6.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% | +1.5% | -7% |
| 123 | BBYConsumer Discretionary | 7.7% | -1.9% | -3.4% | +1.6% | -7% |
| 124 | AVBReal Estate | 5.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | +1.6% | -7% |
| 125 | MDTHealth Care | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.2% | +1.8% | -7% |
| 126 | CLXConsumer Staples | 6.5% | 2.1% | -0.0% | +2.1% | -9% |
| 127 | GDIndustrials | 4.2% | 12.2% | 10.1% | +2.1% | -8% |
| 128 | QCOMInformation Technology | 6.4% | 2.2% | 0.1% | +2.1% | -9% |
| 129 | PAYXIndustrials | 4.8% | 9.0% | 6.5% | +2.5% | -10% |
| 130 | CPRTIndustrials | 4.2% | 12.4% | 9.9% | +2.5% | -10% |
| 131 | ZBRAInformation Technology | 6.9% | 0.4% | -2.3% | +2.7% | -11% |
| 132 | EMEIndustrials | 3.3% | 18.0% | 15.3% | +2.7% | -10% |
| 133 | ANETInformation Technology | 2.1% | 29.9% | 27.1% | +2.8% | -17% |
| 134 | BF-BConsumer Staples | 7.0% | 0.4% | -2.4% | +2.8% | -12% |
| 135 | PSAReal Estate | 5.1% | 7.7% | 4.9% | +2.8% | -11% |
| 136 | LNTUtilities | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.2% | +3.1% | -13% |
| 137 | PNRIndustrials | 6.0% | 3.6% | 0.4% | +3.2% | -13% |
| 138 | TELInformation Technology | 5.5% | 5.6% | 2.0% | +3.6% | -14% |
| 139 | SBACReal Estate | 5.5% | 5.9% | 2.2% | +3.7% | -15% |
| 140 | MKCConsumer Staples | 5.4% | 6.3% | 2.5% | +3.8% | -15% |
| 141 | GEHCHealth Care | 5.0% | 7.9% | 4.0% | +4.0% | -15% |
| 142 | BIIBHealth Care | 6.2% | 3.1% | -0.9% | +4.1% | -16% |
| 143 | CLConsumer Staples | 4.9% | 8.4% | 4.3% | +4.1% | -16% |
| 144 | CDWInformation Technology | 6.4% | 2.3% | -1.9% | +4.2% | -17% |
| 145 | TSNConsumer Staples | 5.7% | 4.9% | 0.7% | +4.2% | -17% |
| 146 | CFMaterials | 11.1% | -9.9% | -14.1% | +4.2% | +25% |
| 147 | EQRReal Estate | 4.9% | 8.7% | 4.2% | +4.5% | -17% |
| 148 | DRIConsumer Discretionary | 4.2% | 12.4% | 7.8% | +4.5% | -17% |
| 149 | NVRConsumer Discretionary | 6.0% | 4.0% | -0.6% | +4.6% | -18% |
| 150 | ESSReal Estate | 4.6% | 10.2% | 5.5% | +4.7% | -18% |
Reverse-DCF on free cash flow (FCF = FCF-yield × market cap), 5yr stage-1 + Gordon terminal at 2.5%, uniform 9% discount; only positive-FCF non-financials. "Delivered" is the 3yr revenue CAGR (a proxy for sustainable FCF growth). Approximate by design — a screen, not a target. Not investment advice.